Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Aserri FC · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Aserri FC are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (DWLDD), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Antioquia are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (WWLDD), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 2 passed 2.5 goals, and Antioquia hold a 17.4-point power-rating edge (26.7 v 44.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 40.3% in the Liga de Ascenso, while Aserri FC holds the strongest overall chance at 40% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 65% BTTS chance and 62% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Aserri FC
Probability
40.3%
Model confidence
40.3%
Aserri FC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00