Ascot Unitedvs
Margate
COMPLETEDEngland · FA Trophy · 8/28/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ascot United · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (9%), 3-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Ascot United 3-0 Margate
Original prediction
Ascot United
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:57 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.80 | 32.1% | 43.3% | 11.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.68 | 24.4% | 25.1% | 0.7 pts |
| Away | 2.06 | 43.5% | 31.6% | -11.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.80 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
11.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–110%
- 2.1–19%
- 3.3–17%
Predicted outcome
Ascot United
Probability
43.3%
Model confidence
43.3%
Ascot United has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 10 · avg 2.20/2.00
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80