Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Asane · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-2 (7%), 2-1 (7%), 1-2 (6%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Asane 2-1 Sogndal
Original prediction
Asane
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 01:46 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.43 | 37.7% | 38.9% | 1.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.76 | 24.3% | 23.2% | -1.1 pts |
| Away | 2.41 | 38.0% | 37.9% | -0.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.43 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–27%
- 2.2–17%
- 3.1–26%
Predicted outcome
Asane
Probability
38.9%
Model confidence
38.9%
Asane has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AsaneLLDDD
GF 6 · GA 11 · avg 1.20/2.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
SogndalLDDLL
GF 5 · GA 9 · avg 1.00/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 2/5
AsaneSogndal
47.2Attack55.1
26.4Defence23.2
27.8Form33.3
35.6Power38.9
2.35xG2.28