ASA Targu Muresvs
Chindia Targoviste
COMPLETEDRomania · Liga II · 10/20/2026, 2:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Chindia Targoviste · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (10%), 1-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
ASA Targu Mures 2-4 Chindia Targoviste
Original prediction
Chindia Targoviste
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 19:35 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.21 | 28.3% | 23.6% | -4.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.38 | 26.9% | 24.3% | -2.6 pts |
| Away | 2.03 | 44.7% | 52.1% | 7.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.03 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–210%
- 2.0–210%
- 3.1–19%
Predicted outcome
Chindia Targoviste
Probability
52.1%
Model confidence
52.1%
Chindia Targoviste has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 11 · avg 1.80/2.20
GF 11 · GA 5 · avg 2.20/1.00