ASA Aarhusvs
Holstebro
COMPLETEDDenmark · 3. Division · 8/28/2026, 5:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Holstebro · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
ASA Aarhus 4-0 Holstebro
Original prediction
Holstebro
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:51 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.89 | 31.1% | 31.1% | -0.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.54 | 25.4% | 25.4% | -0.1 pts |
| Away | 2.08 | 43.4% | 43.6% | 0.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–17%
Predicted outcome
Holstebro
Probability
43.6%
Model confidence
43.6%
Holstebro has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60
GF 12 · GA 8 · avg 2.40/1.60