AS Romavs
Real Madrid
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA Champions League · 10/14/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Real Madrid · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
AS Roma 3-4 Real Madrid
Original prediction
Real Madrid
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 18:16 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.62 | 26.5% | 32.0% | 5.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.97 | 24.2% | 26.8% | 2.6 pts |
| Away | 1.94 | 49.4% | 41.2% | -8.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.94 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Real Madrid
Probability
41.2%
Model confidence
41.2%
Real Madrid has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80
GF 11 · GA 6 · avg 2.20/1.20