Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
AS Roma · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0
AS Roma are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (LWLWW), averaging 1.20 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Plzen are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (WDWLD), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and AS Roma hold a 2.6-point power-rating edge (61.6 v 59.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 44.5% in the UEFA Europa League, while AS Roma holds the strongest overall chance at 44% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 39% BTTS chance and 32% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
AS Roma
Probability
44.5%
Model confidence
44.5%
AS Roma has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00