Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
AS Roma · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0
AS Roma are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (WWWLW), averaging 1.20 scored and 0.40 conceded, while Lille are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (LWLWW), averaging 2.20 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and AS Roma hold a 13.1-point power-rating edge (61.6 v 48.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 51.9% in the UEFA Europa League, while AS Roma holds the strongest overall chance at 52% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 32% BTTS chance and 29% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
AS Roma
Probability
51.9%
Model confidence
51.9%
AS Roma has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 2 · avg 1.20/0.40
GF 11 · GA 7 · avg 2.20/1.40