Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
AS Roma · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (15%), 3-0 (13%), 1-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
AS Roma 2-0 Genoa
Original prediction
AS Roma
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 17 September 2026 at 00:26 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.53 | 62.2% | 69.5% | 7.4 pts |
| Draw | 4.19 | 22.7% | 18.2% | -4.5 pts |
| Away | 6.26 | 15.2% | 12.3% | -2.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.53 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–015%
- 2.3–013%
- 3.1–010%
Predicted outcome
AS Roma
Probability
69.5%
Model confidence
69.5%
AS Roma has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AS RomaLDDWD
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
GenoaWLLWD
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
AS RomaGenoa
77.8Attack27.8
83.3Defence38.9
77.8Form22.2
78.0Power33.0
2.64xG0.58