Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
AS Roma · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0
AS Roma are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (WDWLD), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded, while FC Porto are 2W-3D-0L in their last 5 (WDDDW), averaging 1.20 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 2 passed 2.5 goals, and AS Roma hold a 12.1-point power-rating edge (61.6 v 49.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 58.0% in the UEFA Europa League, while AS Roma holds the strongest overall chance at 58% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 47% BTTS chance and 49% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
AS Roma
Probability
58.0%
Model confidence
58.0%
AS Roma has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80