Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
AS Roma · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0
AS Roma are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (LDLDW), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Bologna are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WDLWW), averaging 1.00 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and AS Roma hold a 4.0-point power-rating edge (61.6 v 57.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 50.2% in the UEFA Europa League, while AS Roma holds the strongest overall chance at 50% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 45% BTTS chance and 41% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
AS Roma
Probability
50.2%
Model confidence
50.2%
AS Roma has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60
GF 5 · GA 3 · avg 1.00/0.60