Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
AS Roma · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
AS Roma are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WWDWL), averaging 0.60 scored and 0.20 conceded, while AC Milan are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (DLWWW), averaging 2.20 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and AS Roma hold a 4.5-point power-rating edge (61.6 v 57.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 52.5% in the UEFA Europa League, while AS Roma holds the strongest overall chance at 53% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 53% BTTS chance and 51% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
AS Roma
Probability
52.5%
Model confidence
52.5%
AS Roma has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 1 · avg 0.60/0.20
GF 11 · GA 6 · avg 2.20/1.20