Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: AS Marsa 0-0 ES Sahel, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
AS Marsa 1-0 ES Sahel
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:10 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.36 | 26.6% | 31.9% | 5.3 pts |
| Draw | 2.84 | 31.5% | 30.7% | -0.8 pts |
| Away | 2.14 | 41.9% | 37.4% | -4.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.8 pts
Projected Score
AS Marsa 0–0 ES Sahel
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
30.7%
Model confidence
37.4%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AS MarsaLDLDL
GF 3 · GA 8 · avg 0.60/1.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
ES SahelDWLLW
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
AS MarsaES Sahel
11.1Attack55.6
66.7Defence44.4
11.1Form44.4
32.9Power51.1
0.94xG0.99