AS Marsavs
ES Metlaoui
COMPLETEDTunisia · Ligue 1 · 10/18/2026, 1:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
AS Marsa · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: AS Marsa 0-0 ES Metlaoui, with an exact score probability of 27%.
Prediction record
Final result
AS Marsa 3-0 ES Metlaoui
Original prediction
AS Marsa
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 17:23 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.95 | 46.2% | 42.1% | -4.1 pts |
| Draw | 2.87 | 31.4% | 33.5% | 2.1 pts |
| Away | 4.02 | 22.4% | 24.4% | 2.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.95 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.1 pts
Projected Score
AS Marsa 0–0 ES Metlaoui
Exact score probability: 27%
Predicted outcome
AS Marsa
Probability
42.1%
Model confidence
42.1%
AS Marsa has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AS MarsaDWLDL
GF 2 · GA 3 · avg 0.40/0.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
ES MetlaouiLLWLL
GF 3 · GA 6 · avg 0.60/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
AS MarsaES Metlaoui
13.3Attack20.0
80.0Defence60.0
33.3Form20.0
45.2Power36.4
0.82xG0.51