Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
AS Eupen · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
AS Eupen 3-1 Liège
Original prediction
AS Eupen
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 06:50 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.75 | 51.7% | 53.3% | 1.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.61 | 25.1% | 23.4% | -1.8 pts |
| Away | 3.92 | 23.1% | 23.3% | 0.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.75 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–110%
- 2.1–110%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
AS Eupen
Probability
53.3%
Model confidence
53.3%
AS Eupen has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AS EupenWWLWL
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
LiègeDDLWL
GF 9 · GA 10 · avg 1.80/2.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
AS EupenLiège
66.7Attack60.0
66.7Defence33.3
75.0Form33.3
70.5Power45.2
2.28xG1.18