Arzignano Valchiampovs
Desenzano Calvina
COMPLETEDItaly · Serie C - Girone A · 9/13/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Arzignano Valchiampo 0-0 Desenzano Calvina, with an exact score probability of 24%.
Prediction record
Final result
Arzignano Valchiampo 1-2 Desenzano Calvina
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:08 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.25 | 40.3% | 35.3% | -5.0 pts |
| Draw | 2.93 | 30.9% | 32.8% | 1.9 pts |
| Away | 3.15 | 28.8% | 31.9% | 3.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.9 pts
Projected Score
Arzignano Valchiampo 0–0 Desenzano Calvina
Exact score probability: 24%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
32.8%
Model confidence
35.3%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
GF 2 · GA 2 · avg 0.40/0.40