Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ekibastuz · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Arys 3-1 Ekibastuz
Original prediction
Ekibastuz
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:08 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.67 | 33.5% | 31.0% | -2.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.60 | 24.8% | 25.1% | 0.3 pts |
| Away | 2.14 | 41.7% | 43.9% | 2.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–27%
Predicted outcome
Ekibastuz
Probability
43.9%
Model confidence
43.9%
Ekibastuz has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ArysLDDWL
GF 4 · GA 4 · avg 0.80/0.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
EkibastuzLLWWW
GF 11 · GA 9 · avg 2.20/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
ArysEkibastuz
33.3Attack46.7
33.3Defence36.7
25.0Form43.3
32.7Power44.2
1.34xG1.81