Arubavs
Antigua and Barbuda
COMPLETEDWorld · CONCACAF Nations League · 9/23/2026, 11:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Aruba · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Aruba 1-0 Antigua and Barbuda
Original prediction
Aruba
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 16 September 2026 at 18:20 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.24 | 40.4% | 38.8% | -1.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.45 | 26.3% | 28.0% | 1.7 pts |
| Away | 2.72 | 33.3% | 33.2% | -0.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.24 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Aruba
Probability
38.8%
Model confidence
38.8%
Aruba has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 7 · avg 0.67/2.33
GF 0 · GA 0 · avg 0.00/0.00