Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Aruba · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (10%), 1-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Aruba 3-2 Anguilla
Original prediction
Aruba
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 16 September 2026 at 18:21 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.06 | 87.3% | 63.2% | -24.1 pts |
| Draw | 10.75 | 8.6% | 19.6% | 11.0 pts |
| Away | 22.57 | 4.1% | 17.2% | 13.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.06 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-24.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–110%
- 2.2–010%
- 3.1–19%
Predicted outcome
Aruba
Probability
63.2%
Model confidence
63.2%
Aruba has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ArubaWWLWL
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
AnguillaLLLLW
GF 2 · GA 12 · avg 0.40/2.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
ArubaAnguilla
50.0Attack0.0
100.0Defence0.0
100.0Form0.0
86.5Power7.5
2.48xG1.01