Arsenal Wvs
Manchester United W
COMPLETEDEngland · FA WSL · 9/19/2026, 4:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Arsenal W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Arsenal W 1-1 Manchester United W
Original prediction
Arsenal W
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:10 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.21 | 76.0% | 56.2% | -19.8 pts |
| Draw | 6.16 | 14.9% | 23.0% | 8.0 pts |
| Away | 10.12 | 9.1% | 20.9% | 11.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 5.16 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-19.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–010%
- 3.2–110%
Predicted outcome
Arsenal W
Probability
56.2%
Model confidence
56.2%
Arsenal W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 1 · avg 1.60/0.20
GF 2 · GA 9 · avg 0.40/1.80