Arsenal Wvs
Birmingham City W
COMPLETEDEngland · FA WSL · 10/17/2026, 11:45:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Arsenal W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Arsenal W 1-1 Birmingham City W
Original prediction
Arsenal W
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 00:42 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.06 | 86.4% | 57.0% | -29.4 pts |
| Draw | 10.32 | 8.9% | 20.9% | 12.0 pts |
| Away | 19.23 | 4.8% | 22.1% | 17.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 9.32 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-29.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.1–08%
Predicted outcome
Arsenal W
Probability
57.0%
Model confidence
57.0%
Arsenal W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
GF 7 · GA 13 · avg 1.40/2.60