GGOALVIO

England · FA WSL · 10/15/2023, 1:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Arsenal W · BTTS No · Over 2.5 · 3-0

Highconfidence

Arsenal W are 1W-2D-1L in their last 4 (DLDW), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.50 conceded, while Aston Villa W are 0W-0D-2L in their last 2 (LL), averaging 0.50 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 6 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Arsenal W hold a 34.1-point power-rating edge (74.0 v 39.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 3-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 87.5% in the FA WSL, while Arsenal W holds the strongest overall chance at 88% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 45% BTTS chance and 77% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Arsenal W

Probability

87.5%

Model confidence

87.5%

Arsenal W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Arsenal WDLDW

GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 2.00/1.50

BTTS 2/4O2.5 3/4
Aston Villa WLL

GF 1 · GA 4 · avg 0.50/2.00

BTTS 1/2O2.5 1/2
Arsenal WAston Villa W
80.3Attack40.9
69.7Defence34.8
75.8Form36.4
74.0Power39.9
3.75xG0.62
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