GGOALVIO

England · Community Shield · 8/6/2023, 3:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Arsenal · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1

Highconfidence

Arsenal are 1W-1D-1L in their last 3 (WLD), averaging 2.00 scored and 2.00 conceded, while Manchester City are 2W-0D-2L in their last 4 (LLWW), averaging 2.25 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 7 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and the power ratings are near level at 45.3 against 45.3. Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 38.0% in the Community Shield, while Arsenal holds the strongest overall chance at 38% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 52% BTTS chance and 46% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Arsenal

Probability

38.0%

Model confidence

38.0%

Arsenal has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

ArsenalWLD

GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 2.00/2.00

BTTS 2/3O2.5 1/3
Manchester CityLLWW

GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 2.25/2.00

BTTS 4/4O2.5 4/4
ArsenalManchester City
33.3Attack33.3
66.7Defence66.7
33.3Form33.3
45.3Power45.3
1.36xG1.16
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