Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Arsenal · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Arsenal 3-0 Lille
Original prediction
Arsenal
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 18:15 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.21 | 79.3% | 54.2% | -25.1 pts |
| Draw | 6.85 | 14.0% | 23.3% | 9.3 pts |
| Away | 14.09 | 6.8% | 22.6% | 15.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.21 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-25.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
Arsenal
Probability
54.2%
Model confidence
54.2%
Arsenal has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ArsenalWLWWW
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
LilleWWLWL
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
ArsenalLille
33.3Attack66.7
100.0Defence0.0
100.0Form0.0
80.3Power23.7
1.97xG1.20