Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Arsenal · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0
Arsenal are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (DWWDL), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Belshina are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LLWWD), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Arsenal hold a 12.0-point power-rating edge (43.1 v 31.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 13.0% in the Premier League, while Arsenal holds the strongest overall chance at 55% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 46% BTTS chance and 44% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Arsenal
Probability
55.5%
Model confidence
13.0%
Arsenal has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20