Arsenal U21vs
Sunderland U21
COMPLETEDEngland · Premier League 2 Division One · 10/10/2026, 12:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sunderland U21 · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (8%), 2-2 (7%), 1-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Arsenal U21 2-2 Sunderland U21
Original prediction
Sunderland U21
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 12 September 2026 at 18:45 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.05 | 44.1% | 33.6% | -10.5 pts |
| Draw | 4.32 | 20.9% | 22.4% | 1.4 pts |
| Away | 2.58 | 35.0% | 44.1% | 9.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.32 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
9.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–28%
- 2.2–27%
- 3.1–17%
Predicted outcome
Sunderland U21
Probability
44.1%
Model confidence
44.1%
Sunderland U21 has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
GF 11 · GA 13 · avg 2.20/2.60