Arsenal U21vs
Chelsea U21
COMPLETEDEngland · Premier League 2 Division One · 9/12/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Chelsea U21 · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-2 (6%), 3-3 (6%), 2-2 (6%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Arsenal U21 1-4 Chelsea U21
Original prediction
Chelsea U21
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.29 | 27.4% | 40.5% | 13.1 pts |
| Draw | 4.16 | 21.7% | 18.0% | -3.7 pts |
| Away | 1.77 | 50.9% | 41.5% | -9.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.77 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-9.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–26%
- 2.3–36%
- 3.2–26%
Predicted outcome
Chelsea U21
Probability
41.5%
Model confidence
41.5%
Chelsea U21 has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 12 · avg 1.20/2.40
GF 9 · GA 11 · avg 1.80/2.20