Arsenal Tula IIvs
Strogino
COMPLETEDRussia · Second League - Group 3 · 9/6/2026, 11:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Strogino · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (11%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Arsenal Tula II 1-2 Strogino
Original prediction
Strogino
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:24 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.37 | 20.7% | 24.9% | 4.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.68 | 24.6% | 24.9% | 0.4 pts |
| Away | 1.65 | 54.8% | 50.1% | -4.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.65 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–111%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Strogino
Probability
50.1%
Model confidence
50.1%
Strogino has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 5 · avg 0.60/1.00
GF 3 · GA 8 · avg 0.60/1.60