Arsenal Tula IIvs
Metallurg Lipetsk
COMPLETEDRussia · Second League - Group 3 · 9/27/2026, 11:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Metallurg Lipetsk · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (14%), 0-3 (12%), 0-1 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Arsenal Tula II 0-0 Metallurg Lipetsk
Original prediction
Metallurg Lipetsk
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 18:44 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 5.27 | 17.0% | 15.8% | -1.2 pts |
| Draw | 4.20 | 21.3% | 20.6% | -0.7 pts |
| Away | 1.46 | 61.6% | 63.6% | 2.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.20 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–214%
- 2.0–312%
- 3.0–111%
Predicted outcome
Metallurg Lipetsk
Probability
63.6%
Model confidence
63.6%
Metallurg Lipetsk has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 5 · avg 0.60/1.00
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20