Arsenal Tivatvs
Sutjeska
COMPLETEDMontenegro · First League · 9/19/2026, 5:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Arsenal Tivat · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-0 (14%), 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Arsenal Tivat 0-2 Sutjeska
Original prediction
Arsenal Tivat
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:11 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.15 | 21.8% | 37.2% | 15.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.15 | 28.7% | 29.3% | 0.5 pts |
| Away | 1.82 | 49.5% | 33.6% | -16.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
15.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–014%
- 2.1–114%
- 3.0–013%
Predicted outcome
Arsenal Tivat
Probability
37.2%
Model confidence
37.2%
Arsenal Tivat has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 9 · avg 1.00/1.80
GF 8 · GA 1 · avg 1.60/0.20