Arsenal Tivatvs
Mornar
COMPLETEDMontenegro · First League · 10/17/2026, 12:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Mornar · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Arsenal Tivat 0-0 Mornar, with an exact score probability of 24%.
Prediction record
Final result
Arsenal Tivat 1-2 Mornar
Original prediction
Mornar
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 7 October 2026 at 22:44 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.49 | 20.1% | 21.2% | 1.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.16 | 28.5% | 31.3% | 2.8 pts |
| Away | 1.75 | 51.4% | 47.5% | -3.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.75 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.9 pts
Projected Score
Arsenal Tivat 0–0 Mornar
Exact score probability: 24%
Predicted outcome
Mornar
Probability
47.5%
Model confidence
47.5%
Mornar has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Arsenal TivatDLWLL
GF 5 · GA 10 · avg 1.00/2.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
MornarWDWDL
GF 12 · GA 6 · avg 2.40/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Arsenal TivatMornar
18.5Attack40.0
59.3Defence66.7
25.9Form46.7
37.5Power53.6
0.54xG0.94