Arsenal Sarandivs
Excursionistas
COMPLETEDArgentina · Primera B Metropolitana · 8/29/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Arsenal Sarandi 0-0 Excursionistas, with an exact score probability of 27%.
Prediction record
Final result
Arsenal Sarandi 3-0 Excursionistas
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.23 | 40.3% | 35.2% | -5.2 pts |
| Draw | 2.85 | 31.5% | 33.7% | 2.2 pts |
| Away | 3.19 | 28.1% | 31.1% | 3.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.2 pts
Projected Score
Arsenal Sarandi 0–0 Excursionistas
Exact score probability: 27%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
33.7%
Model confidence
35.2%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 3 · avg 0.80/0.60
GF 11 · GA 6 · avg 2.20/1.20