Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Llanera · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Arosa 4-1 Llanera
Original prediction
Llanera
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 18 September 2026 at 16:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.07 | 43.3% | 36.0% | -7.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.35 | 26.8% | 24.8% | -2.1 pts |
| Away | 3.01 | 29.8% | 39.2% | 9.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
9.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Llanera
Probability
39.2%
Model confidence
39.2%
Llanera has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ArosaDDLDL
GF 6 · GA 13 · avg 1.20/2.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
LlaneraWDWLL
GF 8 · GA 10 · avg 1.60/2.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
ArosaLlanera
44.4Attack53.3
16.7Defence33.3
22.2Form46.7
30.8Power46.2
1.55xG1.83