Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Arosa · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (9%), 0-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Arosa 0-4 Gernika
Original prediction
Arosa
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.06 | 43.5% | 39.5% | -4.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.11 | 28.8% | 28.9% | 0.0 pts |
| Away | 3.24 | 27.7% | 31.7% | 4.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–09%
- 3.0–09%
Predicted outcome
Arosa
Probability
39.5%
Model confidence
39.5%
Arosa has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ArosaDWL
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.67/1.33
BTTS 2/3O2.5 2/3
GernikaDDDDW
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
ArosaGernika
50.0Attack50.0
50.0Defence50.0
50.0Form50.0
50.0Power50.0
1.39xG1.19