Arosavs
Bergantiños
COMPLETEDSpain · Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 · 10/11/2026, 3:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bergantiños · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (10%), 1-2 (10%), 1-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Arosa 2-2 Bergantiños
Original prediction
Bergantiños
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 18 September 2026 at 15:59 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.91 | 30.8% | 21.7% | -9.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.17 | 28.3% | 23.1% | -5.3 pts |
| Away | 2.20 | 40.8% | 55.3% | 14.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.17 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
14.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–210%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.1–19%
Predicted outcome
Bergantiños
Probability
55.3%
Model confidence
55.3%
Bergantiños has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 13 · avg 1.20/2.60
GF 10 · GA 4 · avg 2.00/0.80