Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Tudelano · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (11%), 0-2 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Arnedo 2-2 Tudelano
Original prediction
Tudelano
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 18 September 2026 at 16:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.24 | 21.2% | 22.9% | 1.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.34 | 26.9% | 25.4% | -1.5 pts |
| Away | 1.73 | 51.9% | 51.7% | -0.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.34 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.0–111%
- 3.0–210%
Predicted outcome
Tudelano
Probability
51.7%
Model confidence
51.7%
Tudelano has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ArnedoDLLLL
GF 2 · GA 12 · avg 0.40/2.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
TudelanoLLWWL
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
ArnedoTudelano
16.7Attack44.4
11.1Defence50.0
5.6Form38.9
15.8Power45.6
0.93xG1.66