Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ebro · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-1 (14%), 1-1 (13%), 0-2 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Arnedo 1-2 Ebro
Original prediction
Ebro
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 10 September 2026 at 17:25 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 5.78 | 15.6% | 21.0% | 5.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.72 | 24.3% | 25.9% | 1.6 pts |
| Away | 1.50 | 60.1% | 53.1% | -7.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.50 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–114%
- 2.1–113%
- 3.0–212%
Predicted outcome
Ebro
Probability
53.1%
Model confidence
53.1%
Ebro has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ArnedoLLLLL
GF 2 · GA 18 · avg 0.40/3.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
EbroWLWDL
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
ArnedoEbro
16.7Attack41.7
0.0Defence75.0
0.0Form58.3
11.3Power60.3
0.79xG1.59