Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Arnedo · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (10%), 1-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Arnedo 1-1 Calamocha
Original prediction
Arnedo
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 7 October 2026 at 19:47 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.95 | 46.4% | 39.2% | -7.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.29 | 27.5% | 27.2% | -0.3 pts |
| Away | 3.48 | 26.0% | 33.6% | 7.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.29 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–010%
- 3.1–010%
Predicted outcome
Arnedo
Probability
39.2%
Model confidence
39.2%
Arnedo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ArnedoDDLLL
GF 3 · GA 10 · avg 0.60/2.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
CalamochaDLLLW
GF 4 · GA 10 · avg 0.80/2.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
ArnedoCalamocha
23.8Attack22.2
14.3Defence16.7
9.5Form22.2
19.9Power24.7
1.21xG1.20