Arnavutköy Belediyesporvs
Aliağa FAŞ
COMPLETEDTurkey · 2. Lig · 9/6/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Aliağa FAŞ · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (13%), 0-1 (13%), 1-1 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Arnavutköy Belediyespor 1-4 Aliağa FAŞ
Original prediction
Aliağa FAŞ
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:26 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.87 | 18.6% | 15.2% | -3.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.52 | 25.7% | 21.8% | -4.0 pts |
| Away | 1.63 | 55.7% | 63.1% | 7.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.63 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–213%
- 2.0–113%
- 3.1–111%
Predicted outcome
Aliağa FAŞ
Probability
63.1%
Model confidence
63.1%
Aliağa FAŞ has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 2 · avg 1.60/0.40
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40