Arminia Bielefeldvs
VfL Osnabrück
COMPLETEDGermany · 2. Bundesliga · 10/18/2026, 11:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Arminia Bielefeld · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Arminia Bielefeld 2-1 VfL Osnabrück
Original prediction
Arminia Bielefeld
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.80 | 51.9% | 48.7% | -3.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.77 | 24.8% | 22.9% | -1.8 pts |
| Away | 4.00 | 23.4% | 28.3% | 5.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.80 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–27%
Predicted outcome
Arminia Bielefeld
Probability
48.7%
Model confidence
48.7%
Arminia Bielefeld has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40