Arminia Bielefeldvs
FC St. Pauli
COMPLETEDGermany · 2. Bundesliga · 9/4/2026, 4:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Arminia Bielefeld · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Arminia Bielefeld 2-2 FC St. Pauli
Original prediction
Arminia Bielefeld
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:10 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.30 | 40.6% | 41.1% | 0.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.52 | 26.5% | 25.9% | -0.6 pts |
| Away | 2.83 | 32.9% | 33.0% | 0.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.52 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Arminia Bielefeld
Probability
41.1%
Model confidence
41.1%
Arminia Bielefeld has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80