Arminia Bielefeldvs
1. FC Heidenheim
COMPLETEDGermany · 2. Bundesliga · 9/20/2026, 11:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
1. FC Heidenheim · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (8%), 1-1 (8%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Arminia Bielefeld 2-2 1. FC Heidenheim
Original prediction
1. FC Heidenheim
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 20:36 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.07 | 45.0% | 35.0% | -10.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.66 | 25.5% | 23.0% | -2.4 pts |
| Away | 3.16 | 29.5% | 42.0% | 12.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.66 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
12.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–28%
- 2.1–18%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
1. FC Heidenheim
Probability
42.0%
Model confidence
42.0%
1. FC Heidenheim has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 10 · avg 1.80/2.00
GF 11 · GA 12 · avg 2.20/2.40