Armeniavs
Montenegro
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA Nations League · 9/28/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Armenia · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (11%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Armenia 2-3 Montenegro
Original prediction
Armenia
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 15:53 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.87 | 32.6% | 37.5% | 4.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.21 | 29.1% | 29.0% | -0.1 pts |
| Away | 2.45 | 38.3% | 33.5% | -4.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Armenia
Probability
37.5%
Model confidence
37.5%
Armenia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20