Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Armenia · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (11%), 0-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Armenia 2-0 Latvia
Original prediction
Armenia
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 15:53 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.85 | 51.0% | 38.9% | -12.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.43 | 27.5% | 27.9% | 0.5 pts |
| Away | 4.37 | 21.6% | 33.1% | 11.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.85 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-12.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–011%
- 3.0–110%
Predicted outcome
Armenia
Probability
38.9%
Model confidence
38.9%
Armenia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ArmeniaDDLDL
GF 7 · GA 11 · avg 1.40/2.20
BTTS 5/5O2.5 3/5
LatviaWWDDL
GF 3 · GA 2 · avg 0.60/0.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
ArmeniaLatvia
37.5Attack25.0
25.0Defence54.2
29.2Form41.7
32.7Power43.3
1.13xG1.19