Armenia U21vs
Italy U21
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification · 10/1/2026, 4:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Italy U21 · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Projected score: Armenia U21 0-3 Italy U21, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
Armenia U21 0-1 Italy U21
Original prediction
Italy U21
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 00:28 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 23.60 | 3.9% | 2.6% | -1.3 pts |
| Draw | 11.98 | 7.7% | 7.4% | -0.3 pts |
| Away | 1.05 | 88.4% | 90.0% | 1.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.05 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.6 pts
Projected Score
Armenia U21 0–3 Italy U21
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
Italy U21
Probability
90.0%
Model confidence
90.0%
Italy U21 has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 14 · avg 0.60/2.80
GF 14 · GA 3 · avg 2.80/0.60