Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Arlanda · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Arlanda 1-2 Umeå FC
Original prediction
Arlanda
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:25 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.94 | 46.9% | 46.4% | -0.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.67 | 24.8% | 25.9% | 1.1 pts |
| Away | 3.20 | 28.4% | 27.7% | -0.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
Arlanda
Probability
46.4%
Model confidence
46.4%
Arlanda has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ArlandaWWLLD
GF 10 · GA 9 · avg 2.00/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
Umeå FCWDLLW
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
ArlandaUmeå FC
100.0Attack0.0
66.7Defence100.0
100.0Form33.3
88.7Power45.3
2.01xG1.21