Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Arlanda · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-0 (10%), 2-0 (10%), 3-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Arlanda 1-3 Järfälla
Original prediction
Arlanda
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 17 September 2026 at 00:36 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.53 | 59.2% | 74.9% | 15.7 pts |
| Draw | 4.28 | 21.2% | 14.3% | -6.9 pts |
| Away | 4.64 | 19.6% | 10.9% | -8.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
15.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–010%
- 2.2–010%
- 3.3–19%
Predicted outcome
Arlanda
Probability
74.9%
Model confidence
74.9%
Arlanda has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ArlandaLWWWW
GF 12 · GA 6 · avg 2.40/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
JärfällaLDLLW
GF 10 · GA 10 · avg 2.00/2.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
ArlandaJärfälla
58.7Attack44.0
60.0Defence25.3
60.0Form24.0
59.4Power32.4
3.10xG0.90