Arlandavs
Hammarby Talang
COMPLETEDSweden · Ettan - Norra · 9/21/2026, 5:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Arlanda · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Arlanda 4-2 Hammarby Talang
Original prediction
Arlanda
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 7 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.09 | 22.0% | 39.5% | 17.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.74 | 24.1% | 25.9% | 1.8 pts |
| Away | 1.67 | 53.9% | 34.6% | -19.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 3.09 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
17.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.2–110%
Predicted outcome
Arlanda
Probability
39.5%
Model confidence
39.5%
Arlanda has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 6 · avg 2.20/1.20
GF 2 · GA 4 · avg 0.40/0.80