Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Arlanda · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Arlanda 2-0 Enköping
Original prediction
Arlanda
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 05:14 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.78 | 50.4% | 46.8% | -3.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.71 | 24.2% | 24.6% | 0.4 pts |
| Away | 3.53 | 25.4% | 28.6% | 3.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.78 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Arlanda
Probability
46.8%
Model confidence
46.8%
Arlanda has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ArlandaWWLLW
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
EnköpingDWWWL
GF 10 · GA 10 · avg 2.00/2.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
ArlandaEnköping
80.0Attack66.7
60.0Defence55.6
60.0Form77.8
65.1Power70.7
2.07xG1.46