Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Arkadag · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Arkadag are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (WLLWL), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Ahal are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (WDDLL), averaging 0.60 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Arkadag hold a 20.0-point power-rating edge (89.8 v 69.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 13.1% in the Ýokary Liga, while Arkadag holds the strongest overall chance at 53% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 47% BTTS chance and 44% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Arkadag
Probability
52.9%
Model confidence
13.1%
Arkadag has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00
GF 3 · GA 5 · avg 0.60/1.00